toledoblade.com --

TEMPE. Ariz. - When President Bush and Sen. John Kerry meet tonight at Arizona State University, it will be the last opportunity for voters to see them together before the Nov. 2 election and the last chance for either candidate to use a debate forum to try to break out from a dead-even race.

Bob Schieffer of CBS News will moderate, posing questions on domestic policy and the economy for 90 minutes. As with the first debate in Coral Gables, Fla., on Sept. 30, the audience will be warned not to boo, cheer, or participate in any way other than to applaud at the beginning and the end because the encounter is designed so that voters watching on television see an unbiased forum. Sixty-two million viewers watched Sept. 30; 47 million watched Friday's town hall-style debate in St. Louis.

Polls have fluctuated all year, sometimes wildly, and they are closely watched with less than three weeks before the election.

The Florida debate and Friday's debate benefited Mr. Kerry. Before the debates, the President had a seven-percentage-point lead. A poll over the weekend by the Gallup Organization put Mr. Kerry at 49 percent and Mr. Bush at 48 percent among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader getting 1 percent. In 17 battleground states, where the election is likely to be decided in the quest for 270 electoral votes, Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by three points.

In Pennsylvania, a prize coveted by both men, a Quinnipiac poll shows Mr. Kerry two points ahead of Mr. Bush. But Ohio and Florida are up for grabs.

On the other hand, polls for ABC and CBS show Mr. Bush leading Mr. Kerry by four and three points, respectively, nationwide. Zogby International has Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry at 45 percent each with Mr. Nader getting two percent. But for all polls, whether they show Mr. Kerry or Mr. Bush ahead, the results are within the margin of error, meaning the race is too close to call and that the shrinking number of undecided voters may determine the outcome.

Tonight's questions will not be on the controversial war in Iraq, which figured in the earlier two encounters and a debate Oct. 5 in Cleveland between Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John Edwards. Instead, the focus will be on such issues as Mr. Bush's tax cuts, which he claims are boosting economic growth and which Mr. Kerry argues benefited the wealthiest Americans while increasing the deficit.

Topics likely to be covered include Social Security, health insurance, jobs, and the economy, the AIDS crisis, education, illegal immigration, energy needs, and oil prices. Such issues as abortion, stem-cell research, and cheaper prescription drugs also may come up again.

Mr. Bush's job approval rating slipped to 47 percent in the latest poll by the Gallup Organization. That does not mean he would lose the election if it were today, but an incumbent president seeking re-election gets worried when his job approval rate falls below 50 percent only three weeks away from Election Day.

Also, in the past two decades, studies have shown that a majority of undecided voters uncertain about the incumbent often end up voting for the challenger. But Sept. 11, 2001, and the war in Iraq are new factors this year.

The campaign has become increasingly personal. Mr. Bush has begun accusing Mr. Kerry of being not only a flip-flopping senator but a naive liberal who can't pay for his promises. Mr. Kerry has questioned the President's honesty and competence not only on Iraq but on domestic issues.

Scott McClellan, the White House press secretary, said yesterday that Mr. Bush is going to use tonight's session to continue to emphasize the "clear differences" between him and Mr. Kerry on the economy and health care and other issues. Bush campaign aides expect Mr. Bush to insist again Mr. Kerry would raise middle-class taxes if elected.

In a conference call with reporters, Kerry campaign aides predicted that Mr. Kerry would have his best night tonight because the economy is traditionally a major spur to voting, and while business leaders say the economy is doing well, many consumers don't think it is.

Joe Lockhart, a senior adviser to Mr. Kerry, said there are no examples of an incumbent losing three debates in a row and then winning the election.

The Bush campaign does not concede its candidate "lost" either of the two previous encounters.

"We have always predicted a tight race," said Karl Rove, senior adviser to Mr. Bush.

Contact Ann McFeatters at:
amcfeatters@nationalpress.com
or 202-662-7071.

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