Article published October 15, 2008
Halloween face-off: Does the popularity of a candidate's mask predict election winner?
By KIRK BAIRD
BLADE STAFF WRITER
With less than three weeks to go before the Nov. 4 presidential election, the nation anxiously awaits the results: Will it be Republican Sen. John McCain or Democrat Sen. Barack Obama who will call 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. home for the next four years?
The polls currently favor Obama, while only a month ago McCain enjoyed the momentum. Pundits and party officials alike fill hours of airtime discussing, analyzing, and debating who will win.
But just like scrubbing floors and cleaning toilets, there's got to be an easier way. And there is. Halloween masks.
That's right, Halloween masks. Since 1980, the popularity of a presidential candidate's Halloween mask has accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential race in all seven campaigns.
And current sales trends suggest it's going to be a scary Halloween for McCain supporters, who are far more likely to see Obama masks that night than the rubber face of their own candidate. In fact, the race to the White House in terms of popular presidential Halloween masks isn't even close in the several Halloween USA locations throughout the Toledo area.
"I sold 29 Obama masks in three days," said Bradley Newman, store manager at the Halloween USA in Rossford. "I've sold just a couple [of] McCains." Both masks retail for $19.99.In fact, at his store, former presidents Nixon and Clinton outsell McCain, as well as runner-up Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Hillary Clinton.
"I don't know what it is about the McCain masks, they won't sell. I actually have them in back stock," Mr. Newman said, compared to the Obama masks, which he cannot keep in stock.
"I wish I had a section of Obama masks," he said. "I guarantee I'd sell a lot of them. They have to be half of my sales."
Bonnie Plouffe, store manager at the Halloween USA location in West Toledo, offered further discouraging news for McCain supporters.
"I've sold all my Obamas, sold quite a few Hillarys, and some [Pres. George W.] Bushs," Ms. Bonnie Plouffe said. "I haven't sold any McCains."
Nationally, Halloween mask sales are tighter, but still favor Obama.
ExtremeHalloween.com, a Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based company that sells masks online nationwide, has Obama with a slight lead.
"He's always been ahead since we got the masks in," said ExtremeHalloween.com marketing director Shari McConahay.
Sales of the masks at Extreme Halloween has correctly predicted the presidential election for nearly 30 years.
Buycostumes.com offers a Website presidential poll based on mask sales, which, as of yesterday, had Obama in the lead, 56 percent to 44 percent. While Kentucky-based Halloween Express, one of the top seasonal Halloween suppliers nationwide, including several southern Ohio locations, has Obama masks outselling McCain masks, 320 to 288.
And what about mask sales of Sarah Palin and Joe Biden?
Since the production of the presidential masks began a year ago, there wasn't time to make the traditional rubber masks of Palin and Biden, who were tapped as vice-presidential nominees this summer. Instead, their masks have been limited to cardboard cutouts attached to popsicle sticks that sell for about 99 cents, said Brad Butler, chief operating officer of Halloween Express.
And while Obama is Mr. Butler's most popular political mask, he's not his bestselling mask. Not even close. That would be a machete-wielding, virtually indestructible killing machine with a vendetta against teenage campers.
"If we went by that figure, Jason [of the Friday the 13th film series] would be our president," Mr. Butler said, "because the Jason hockey masks are far and away more popular than anything."
Contact Kirk Baird at
kbaird@theblade.com
or 419-724-6734.
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