NEW YORK - October's retail sales results, the best performance since April, 2008, show that Americans are spending a little more. But will they be willing to pay full price this holiday season?
Stores are heading into the period with slashed inventories, determined not to have the fire sales that characterized last Christmas. But shoppers are still facing tight credit and a weak job market and might wait for fat discounts or not buy at all. That game of chicken will determine the holiday winners and losers.
"Shoppers are still being cautious, but we are seeing some signs of recovery in the economy," said Carl Steidtmann, an economist at Deloitte Research, who forecasts holiday sales will be unchanged from a year ago.
Sales at stores open at least a year rose 2.1 percent in October, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs tally, compared with a 4.2 percent drop in October, 2008. The October results beat estimates for a 1 percent gain and followed a surprising 0.6 percent increase in September.
Sales at stores open at least a year are considered a key indicator of a retailer's health.
As merchants announced their second consecutive monthly sales gain after more than a year of declines, the results showed that shoppers still were not splurging, restrained by worries about the economy. But the improving figures all pointed to sales momentum as the industry heads into the holiday shopping season.Affluent shoppers, who had been tight with their purse strings since the financial meltdown ballooned last year, spent more for designer duds, delivering solid gains for Saks Inc. and Nordstrom Inc.
Other bright spots were Costco Wholesale Corp.; TJX Cos., which operates T.J. Maxx and Marshalls; and Gap Inc. But sales at most teen merchants were weak.
October's reading excludes results from Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, which stopped issuing monthly sales reports earlier this year.
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