toledoblade.com --

The sky is clear. The moon is full. And police folklore declares that it's prime time for crime.

Skeptics may howl, but it may not be such a crazy thought - at least in Toledo.

A Blade computer analysis of Toledo police reports over the last three years adds credence to an age-old adage. From 1999 through 2001, the crime rate rose 5 percent on the nights with full moons.

The data come from a broad look at the relationship between crime, holidays, and weather.

The analysis of 122,000 police reports for those three years offers a host of insights into crime in Toledo. Fridays have the most murders. Christmas does bring more peace on Earth than any other holiday. And it's the heat - not the humidity - that coincides with a higher crime rate.

But few of those factoids draw as much attention in police roll call as the traditional superstition about the emergence of the full moon every 291/2 days.

There's broad agreement on the root causes of crime: a bad economy, bad parenting, and bad drug habits. And crime generally occurs toward the weekend.

But the full-moon theory has remained in law enforcement circles - part of a legend steeped in centuries of mystical beliefs in lunar power driving everything from tales of werewolves to vampires.

Even through the 1990s, scholars have continued to study whether the moon affects crime and a host of other human experiences from hospital admissions to births. Although the issue continues to be debated, most academics discount any correlation.

Still, many veteran cops aren't convinced that a full-moon night is just like any other.

"I've heard it both ways," said longtime Sgt. Bob Maxwell, who handles crimes such as robberies and homicides. "But going through reports every day, it just seems that there's usually more activity, more violence."

The data appear to back them up.

The Blade looked at all crime that occurred between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. for the 38 full moons that occurred from 1999 through 2001 and compared them with the crime rate for all nights from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m.

Those nights averaged:

5.5 percent more violent crime - crimes in which the victim was threatened or hurt, such as homicides or assaults.

4.6 percent more property crimes - crimes in which something was taken or damaged without threats or violence, such as arsons or burglaries.

Some crime rates did drop slightly during full moons: burglaries of occupied homes, shoplifting, minor assaults, and menacing.

But most types of crime increased, most notably burglaries of unoccupied homes (16 percent), resisting arrest (34 percent), and aggravated assault (35 percent).

Adding a strange twist to the data, the rate of armed robberies dropped 11 percent during full-moon nights, but robberies without weapons increased 14 percent.

Chief Michael Navarre said he's not surprised by the numbers.

"Myself, I'm not superstitious," he said. "But I recognize there's a lot of folks who are, and that could very well result in a higher crime rate being reported."

It's not necessarily the volume of crime that strikes some officers on full-moon nights - it's the type of criminals.

During the most recent full moon - overnight Thursday - veteran Detective Dan Navarre handled the death of a crack addict, a robbery at a strip club, and a stolen car. But he also:

Counseled a crack addict who begged police to kick her crack-addict boyfriend out of their home so she could get sober.

Arrested a giggly 38-year-old prostitute who insisted she had consumed only tomato juice, while conceding her alter ego had slammed down a couple rum-and-Cokes.

Shooed away an elderly bicyclist with a flat tire who allegedly was harassing his ex-girlfriend.

And, after a minute of nudging, awoke a drunk who fell asleep outside a pizza shop with his back arched over a concrete parking tie.

Detective Navarre - the chief's brother - said much of that crime is par for the course of any night, but he's still a believer in the theory.

"That [last] guy came out because of the full moon," he offered with a laugh.

The full-moon theory gained some credence in the late 1970s, when Florida psychiatrist Arnold Lieber published a book claiming that homicides in Miami and Cleveland were tied to lunar patterns.

He claimed that, if the moon's gravitational pull could sway tides in oceans, it could sway humans, who are 80 percent water. He theorized that the gravitational force could provide the nudge to send potential criminals over the edge.

He repeated the assertions in a 1996 book.

"It is repression of the moon's influence and what it stands for that brings about social tension, disharmony and lamentable, often bizarre results," he wrote.

Still, plenty of researchers have disputed his findings. Among other complaints, they say the moon's gravitational force is less than the weight of a mosquito - not enough to do much of anything to anybody.

As for people who believe the full-moon theory, skeptics say it's likely that they credit the full moon for craziness on those nights. But when crazy things happen on other nights, it's chalked up to chance.

Even some local law enforcement veterans, such as University of Toledo criminal justice professor D. Michael Collins, roll their eyes at such talk of the moon affecting crime.

"I just don't put much stock in it," said Mr. Collins, who spent 27 years on the Toledo force. "We may have laughed at it in passing. Was it truly a concern? My experience was that it truly wasn't."

Still, there remain believers across law enforcement, such as Lucas County corrections Officer Michael Moore.

"Usually we'll be pretty busy during full moons, with some crazy folks [coming in]," he said. "Their attitudes when they come in, they're more combative, boisterous, loud, screaming, and cussing."

His views are shared by Gloria Pierce, who runs the emergency room at St. Vincent Mercy Medical Center.

She's seen plenty of scientific studies arguing there's no lunar effect on craziness. Even a recent St. Vincent's study of patient volume questioned any connection. But she still senses the oddities of those full-moon nights.

"The research done doesn't include the anecdotal strangeness. A lot of time, it's cut-and-dried, black-and-white numbers," she said. "We all know that when humans are involved, there's a lot more to the story."

Beyond the controversy of the moon, the analysis shows some trends on the nature of the 111 average crimes a day in Toledo - some predictable, some not.

Among the sure-bet guesses, the crime rate drops if the city sees an inch or more of rain or snow.

On such days, the overall crime dropped by an eighth. Robberies plummeted 22 percent.

"Criminals are like deer," said Detective Navarre, an avid hunter. "They don't like to come out when the weather's bad."

Conversely, crime rises with the temperature, peaking when the mercury hits between 80 and 90 degrees.

But - bucking conventional wisdom - crime doesn't appear to increase with humidity.

Also, different kinds of crimes seem to peak on different days of the week, with Friday the most popular.

From midnight Thursday to midnight Friday, the city saw its most killings, burglaries, child abuse, uncooperative arrestees, and thefts during the three-year period.

Thursdays were the least crime-filled days overall, although most crimes varied on their off-days.

Vehicle thieves were most likely to rest on Tuesdays. Rapists and stalkers struck less on Mondays. And Sundays saw the least number of killings, burglaries, and armed robberies.

But Sundays were not peaceful for every crime. Arsonists actually preferred the Christian Sabbath.

Professor Collins suspected it wasn't any kind of religious deviancy on the part of arsonists as much as it was opportunity - with most businesses closed on Sundays.

"It gives them time to go in and set up everything," he said.

But peace, love, and family do count for something. Of 34 government, religious, or cultural holidays every year, Christmas saw the lowest amount of crime over the three years - about 40 percent less than the average day. Valentine's Day was second, and Thanksgiving was third.

Much of the crime occurring on holidays depended on their day of the week or placement in the year. The summer holidays saw heavier crime because of the warmer weather, officers surmised. The only exception was New Year's Day - No. 2 on the list - which counts everything from midnight New Year's Eve. The likely culprit? Heavy drinking.

And then there's Mother-In-Law's Day.

Celebrated on the fourth Sunday in October, the holiday averaged 131 crimes each year - 18 percent higher than a typical day. It nudged out New Year's Day for the top spot.

Mother-in-Law's Day led all holidays in four categories: auto theft, theft from a vehicle, resisting arrest, and shoplifting.

When asked why that day would host the most crime, officers - particularly the married ones - took the high road.

Chief Navarre said he had no idea what had spurred crime on that holiday, noting that he gets along fine with his mother-in-law.

"I have no explanation," he said.

Of course, one of those holidays fell on a full moon. Arrrroooooooo.

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