Tuesday, Mr. Kasich will get his chance to make good on his promise as he proposes a two-year budget that is likely to be heavy on privatization of what are now government services, set up a showdown with the powerful nursing home lobby over the future of long-term care in Ohio, and cut everything from human services and local governments to K-12 schools and universities.
"While I believe we can't tax our way to prosperity, we can't cut our way there either,'' the Republican governor said last week in his first State of the State Address.
In that speech, he did something that his administration and that of his predecessor, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, had previously been unwilling to do. He put a firm number on the revenue chasm from which discussions had to start — an $8 billion hole. The current $50.5 billion two-year budget will expire on June 30.
Mr. Kasich said there will no further delay in the final 4.2 percent increment to complete a total 21 percent cut in the personal income tax that was begun in 2005. That 4.2 percent represents roughly $800 million, or 10 percent of that $8 billion hole.
Mr. Strickland and lawmakers in 2009 delayed the last installment for two years after the courts slammed the brakes on plans to bring slot machines to racetracks as a means of generating more than $800 million for the state.
That last cut officially went into effect on Jan. 1, and it would take a vote of the General Assembly to retroactively shelve it again.
"We will not be raising taxes in this state,'' Mr. Kasich said. GOP lawmakers have also introduced bills to eliminate Ohio's estate tax. Mr. Kasich is a fan of the idea, but it is not clear whether he will pursue another tax cut with this budget.
OneOhioNow, a coalition of 40 labor, education, and human service organizations, was heartened to hear Mr. Kasich say he realized the state can't cut its way out of the budget hole. But they also heard him vow that there would be no tax hikes.
"We need to have an honest conversation about what steps to take to reasonably and responsibly address this budget shortfall,'' said Andrea Fejes, the group's coordinator. "Cutting $8 billion, we don't see how that can be done without decimating our state. It would not put us on the path to economic prosperity.''
Revenues have to be on the table for discussion, she said. The group, however, has not cited specific taxes to raise.
Reporters will be shown details of the proposal Tuesday afternoon, and then Mr. Kasich plans to hold a ticket-only town hall meeting tomorrow night that would be televised and streamed on the Internet.
"We are not peddling in any speculation about what is and is not in the budget,'' Kasich spokesman Rob Nichols said. "It will be revealed very publicly and openly on Tuesday.''
Among the things to look for:
"We have put off problems for far too long, and we need to fix them to grow and prosper in the future,'' state Sen. Mark Wagoner (R., Ottawa Hills) said. "It's the whole approach to state government, putting every program under a microscope, what's working and what's not working.
"We have limited dollars, so we have to be disciplined and invest in smart programs that work—for example, the prenatal care that the governor has talked about,'' he said. "If we invest there, we save significant dollars in other parts of the budget.''
Gayle Channing Tenenbaum, co-chairman of Advocates for Ohio's Future, noted that many of the human service programs that are in doubt are part of the safety net for the most vulnerable Ohioans.
"We have to recognize that these are all interrelated, and we have to make sure that there aren't holes in the safety net,'' she said. "We need to look at how these impact not only families, children, single adults and seniors, but also the economies and communities we work in.''
Cathy Levine, executive director of the Universal Health Care Action Network of Ohio, applauded the encouraging signs received so far that the focus of the budget ax will not fall first on dental, vision, podiatry, and other optional Medicaid services.
"We've heard consistently from the administration that they do not plan to cut optional services, so we're cautiously optimistic,'' she said. "They understand that when you cut dental care and other optional services, people will seek care in more expensive settings.''
Even before Mr. Kasich formally unveils his budget, Toledo-area workers are expected to hold a press conference Monday at 3:30 p.m. to decry state cuts to local governments and schools that everybody knows are coming. The event is set for the Mulford Library on the University of Toledo Health Science Campus, the former Medical College of Ohio.