2 UT professors predict Toledo's finances will slip this year

1/30/2014

Two University of Toledo professors hired to forecast the city's financial health predicted Toledo's economy and income tax collections this year could slip backward after three years of growth.

"There were 7,000 jobs lost in the city of Toledo alone," said David Black, a professor of economics for the university.

Mr. Black and Oleg Smirnov told council's finance committee today that two forecasting models both showed decreases over their previous estimates for 2013. The actual amount of money collected last year from the city's 2.25 percent payroll tax is not yet known.

They previously predicted $160.5 million under one model or $160.9 million under a second model to be generated by the payroll tax in 2013. They now think the 2013 collection will be $158.6 million - under both forecast models.

One of their forecast models predicts $156.08 million in 2014 from the 2.25 percent payroll tax - a 1.62 percent decrease compared to the $158.63 million predicted for 2013 under the same forecast model.

The second forecast model predicts a slight increase from income tax collections to $159.5 million. The city collected $158.52 million in 2012.

"If your predictions prove valid and true we have a tough job ahead of us," Council President Paula Hicks-Hudson said.