Talking to Iran

Iran has launched a frantic flurry of initiatives in the past two weeks, most of them bellicose -- from suspending oil shipments to Europe to allegedly trying to assassinate Israeli diplomats. But the Obama Administration and its allies appear likely to seize on Tehran's contrasting dispatch of a letter agreeing to a renewal of talks on its nuclear program.

Delivered at a time when sanctions appear to be severely disrupting the Iranian economy, the offer raises the hope that the theory underlying years of U.S. policy -- that global pressure would cause Iran's leaders to bargain -- could at last be proved. It will, at least, be put to a crucial test.

The good news about the Feb. 14 letter from chief nuclear negotiator Sael Jalili is that it retreats from the ludicrously intransigent position that poisoned the last meeting between Iran and the "P5+1" nations -- the five United Nations Security Council permanent members and Germany -- in January 2011. Then, Iran refused even to discuss its nuclear program. Now, Mr. Jalili says that "talks for cooperation … on Iran's nuclear issue could be commenced."

The immediate question is whether Iran is using diplomacy as a way of buying time, even as it presses ahead with steps toward a bomb. Recent reports say that the nuclear program is close to passing another major milestone, with the startup of a uranium enrichment facility buried under a mountain near the city of Qom.

A test of Iran's seriousness was under way this week as a delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited the country. It sought to persuade Iranian officials to answer questions about alleged work on weaponization, and to permit interviews with scientists and a visit to a military base.

The IAEA reported another Iranian failure to cooperate. That suggests Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not changed his refusal to come to terms with the West.

It appears likely that Tehran perceives talks as an opportunity to undermine sanctions. Mr. Jalili's letter referred to negotiations "based on step-by-step principles and reciprocity," language that could describe a proposal Russia put forward last year in which Iran would receive relief from sanctions in exchange for incremental actions to satisfy the IAEA.

Iran rejected the idea, but now the P5+1, urged on by the Obama Administration, is discussing a modified version. Reportedly, it could grant some sanctions relief if Iran suspended only its higher-level enrichment of uranium, and surrendered material enriched to that level.

Such a deal would retreat from U.N. resolutions that require Iran to cease all enrichment. It would ease pressure on the leadership at just the wrong moment.

Worried about that possibility, a bipartisan group of a dozen senators says it opposes "any proposal that caps or limits sanctions" in exchange for "anything less than full, verifiable, and sustained suspension of all enrichment activities." If Iran is serious about a deal, it will meet the senators' terms.

-- Washington Post