LOS ANGELES — When American Idol returns for its 10th season on Fox next Wednesday, it will have two fresh (and very famous) faces at the judges' table. And it will also feature, the network promises, a renewed focus on the warbling would-be stars who are supposed to be the singing smash's reason for existence in the first place.
Ah, but something will be missing. Oh, right — the sassy guy with the flattop and tight T-shirts.
The big suspense surrounding the new Idol isn't whether Steven Tyler will be introduced as Liv Tyler's father or Jennifer Lopez will salvage her fading career. The Aerosmith frontman and Bronx-born J-Lo were picked as judges amid a carnival of speculation last summer. Instead, the real story centers on whether the show will survive the departure of Simon Cowell, the caustic lead judge who rode his merciless putdowns of auditioners to high-powered stardom.
The stakes are incredibly high for Fox (WUPW-TV, Channel 36, in Toledo). Idol is the No. 1 series on television and has propelled Fox to repeated victories in the crucial demographic of adults ages 18 to 49, according to the Nielsen Co. The singing contest has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for Fox and made it nearly impossible for ABC and NBC to compete in midweek during the winter and spring months.
CBS has fared much better but has nevertheless been held to a counter-programming strategy, batting back the Idol threat with franchise crime series such as Criminal Minds and NCIS, which skew heavily toward older viewers. And at a time when broadcasting was supposed to be slumping off into irrelevance, Idol proved that 30 million viewers will still crowd around a network show.
At least for the record, Fox executives insist there's little cause for concern.
“For any show in its 10th season to be holding up as well as Idol is a testament to the show,” said Preston Beckman, Fox's research and scheduling guru. “It's been about 60 percent higher than the next highest-rated show, so worst-case scenario, it'll still be the biggest show on television.”
Idol has been the No. 1 program for a record six straight years — longer than any show, scripted or otherwise, including All in the Family, The Cosby Show, and I Love Lucy.
This season, the network is hoping Idol can push it to the top of the heap on Thursdays, a night where Fox has historically been weak. Executives made the decision to move the results show there (after following a Tuesday-Wednesday schedule in years past) after CBS pulled Survivor off the night.
“We could go into next season as the No. 1 network on Thursday night,” Beckman said.
But there is a sense that Fox is on the defensive, that the network must stop more air from escaping the Idol balloon. Last May's finale drew 24.2 million iewers — still an enormous figure, but Idol's worst season closer since its first in 2002. Critics griped about the perceived blandness of the contestants, including runner-up Crystal Bowersox of northwest Ohio and the self-effacing winner Lee DeWyze.
Even the show's once formidable infrastructure seemed out of whack. Ellen DeGeneres, who was hired to replace Paula Abdul on the judge's table, proved an awkward fit. Trying to accommodate reactions from a quartet of judges — actually the same number as on Pop Idol, the show's British predecessor — threw off the pacing and often made the program run long. Cowell exited after last season to prepare his own talent contest, The X Factor, for a Fox run later this year.
“In the past couple years, it was like so much oxygen seemed to be consumed by everything going on the judges' panel that the poor kids hardly had a chance to introduce themselves,” said Richard Rushfield, author of the forthcoming book American Idol: The Untold Story.
Perhaps as a result, the last few crops of Idol singers haven't broken through to mainstream success the way earlier performers did, such as Season 1's Kelly Clarkson, Season 4's Carrie Underwood, and Season 5's Chris Daughtry (who did not win or make the finals of the contest).
“The biggest thing that Idol needs to do this year,” Rushfield said, “is produce a major recording star. They haven't done that in a lot of years, and it's sort of the premise of the show.”
Thus, what those close to the show promise will be a return to roots. Nigel Lythgoe, the producer and So You Think You Can Dance judge who left Idol in 2008 after reportedly tangling with Cowell, has come back to oversee the show.
Meanwhile, the producers are hoping to beef up Idol's musical credibility with the addition of Jimmy Iovine, a leading record producer and music-label executive who will serve as a permanent mentor to the contestants.
The very fact that Fox is talking about a “Simon void” suggests how much Idol must prove this season.
“He was the master of brutal honesty, but he really knew the business,” industry analyst Shari Anne Brill said of Cowell. “If the replacements and the new formatting of the show [don't] get people from the beginning, it's going to hurt.”
But a few weeks can make a huge difference in the life of a TV show. When Idol premiered during the summer of 2002, few viewers or media outlets paid it much attention at first. And practically no one had ever heard of Simon Cowell.