Timely talks

The question is not whether successful peace talks between Israel and Palestinians are in America's interest. That much is clear. Peace in the Middle East helps the United States a lot.

The question is, now that the talks have begun: What are their prospects for success? The answer: Better than they have been in the past.

Quite a bit has changed, and much of it improves the odds that the talks launched Wednesday will result in a workable, sustainable peace accord. Opening the negotiations were President Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah II in supporting roles.

Here is what is different. Saddam Hussein's Iraq was always one of Israel's most dangerous enemies. At the beginning of this decade, his armed forces numbered nearly half a million and some believed - falsely - that Iraq was developing nuclear weapons. Iraq as a threat to Israel is gone for the foreseeable future.

Israel's primary interlocutors in the negotiations, the Palestinians, are in major disarray. Mr. Abbas is the primary spokesperson for the Palestinians, but his Fatah party lost the 2006 elections to Hamas and his term as president of the Palestinian Authority expired last year.

He faces enmity not only from Hamas, which controls Gaza, but also from elements in his own party. Since his position as Palestinian negotiator is weak, the question is whether he is strong enough to reach an agreement with Mr. Netanyahu.

The Israeli prime minister faces his own problems. Domestic politics feature their usual mess of factions. Mr. Netanyahu would not dare let his foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who is outspoken against an accord, lead the Israeli negotiating delegation. Even so, there is room for responsible voices, such as that of President Shimon Peres, to be heard effectively.

Behind all of that in Israel is the fact, for those dedicated to preservation of a Jewish state, that Arab residents continue to grow as a proportion of the population, now estimated at 20 percent. The Arab rate of population increase is 2.6 percent, compared to the Jewish rate of 1.7 percent.

Finally, there is Mr. Obama. Starting with his speech to Muslims in Cairo in June 2009, followed by the fulfillment of his promise to end the U.S. combat mission in Iraq, he has credibility in the Middle East that will enable him to intervene if a party to the talks takes impossible positions.

One last caution: Now is the time when various pundits, some of them failed past negotiators, will weigh in to insist that this is impossible. One tactic will be to tie a prospective agreement to resolving other problems, such as Iran's nuclear ambitions or Syria's desire to get the Golan Heights back.

Americans will do well to concentrate on the issues between the Palestinians and Israel. If other gains seem within grasp, they can be addressed after an agreement between the parties has been reached. That must be the goal now.