In Ohio and U.S., they need a new theme …

What is the Democratic Party's compelling message, in Ohio and across the country, that will deliver its supporters to the polls this fall and also attract the swing voters who decide close races?

We haven't heard it yet. And on the eve of Labor Day - the traditional kickoff of the "real" campaign - that's a big problem. Especially since, for an increasing number of Ohio voters, Election Day will occur not on Nov. 2, but with the start of absentee voting in barely three weeks.

President Obama's administration has racked up important achievements, such as the new laws to reform health care and Wall Street and the job-saving rescue of Chrysler and General Motors. He can argue credibly that had it not been for the stimulus spending he and congressional Democrats approved over intractable Republican opposition, the continued fallout from the deep recession would have been much worse.

Similarly, Gov. Ted Strickland can make the case that without tough decisions he has embraced, such as postponing the final phase of reducing the state income tax, Ohio would face the same sort of budget crisis that is afflicting other states.

But how do you prove a negative? Republicans point to studies that claim to show the stimulus had no effect at all. They note that Ohio's unemployment rate rose from 8.6 percent when Mr. Obama took office to 10.3 percent in July. They cite the state's loss of nearly 400,000 jobs over the past three years, while Mr. Strickland has been governor.

In a conversation with The Blade's editorial board last week, Mr. Strickland conceded: "This isn't a normal election cycle. If we had a normal recovery, I'd probably be an overwhelming favorite for re-election.

"But [Democrats] have a lack of enthusiasm to vote because of the economy. The greater energy right now is with conservatives, especially the right wing of the right wing. So the race is a toss-up, and the winner is yet to be determined."

Say what you will about the GOP's "whatever it is, I'm against it" response to Mr. Obama's agenda and its applications in Ohio. Lament all you want its cynical exploitation of emotional wedge issues such as immigration control and the proposed Islamic cultural center near Ground Zero. The strategy is working, at least for now.

A poll released last week by Public Policy Polling, of Raleigh, N.C., gave Republican challenger John Kasich a lead of 50 percent to 40 percent over Mr. Strickland. "The race has pretty much shaped up as a referendum on Strickland, and that is not to the incumbent's advantage," said Tom Jensen, the polling firm's director.

Public Policy Polling also asked Ohio voters whether they'd rather have Mr. Obama or George W. Bush in the White House now. By 50 percent to 42 percent, they picked Mr. Bush.

It gets worse for Democrats. A Gallup poll reported last week that voters nationwide prefer Republican congressional candidates to Democrats by 51 percent to 41 percent - the largest such lead in a midterm campaign since Gallup began tracking the "generic" ballot in 1942. Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to say they are very enthusiastic about voting this year, Gallup said.

"We know what we have to do to compete," Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who has represented the Toledo area in the U.S. House for 28 years, told The Blade last week. "But we've never had such a multimillionaire run against us," she said of her Republican challenger, Rich Iott.

She is stressing her seniority and her ability to deliver for the 9th District. She notes that if she is re-elected - and if Democrats keep control of the House - she will become the second-ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, which oversees federal spending. But she adds: "How do you compete against unlimited funds? It's daunting."

If there's a ray of hope for Ohio Democrats, it may reside in a poll released last week on the state's U.S. Senate race. Despite disarray in his campaign and a huge fund-raising disadvantage, the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, trailed Republican Rob Portman by five percentage points among likely voters - down from eight points two weeks earlier.

That was enough for Rasmussen to move the race back into the "tossup" category. But several other political pundits said last week that they now see the contest leaning Republican. Either way, northwest Ohio could decide the election.

All polls are just snapshots in time and things can change quickly; Gallup notes that Democrats led the generic congressional ballot earlier this summer. But these results suggest that to remain competitive, the party needs a more-persuasive message and a stronger articulation of it.

Looking to Mr. Obama for help probably isn't a winning strategy for many Democrats. Governor Strickland conceded that an Ohio campaign appearance by the President last month on his behalf "helped raise some money, but I don't know that it helped move votes."

For his part, Mr. Strickland insists he is "mean enough to fight" as the campaign heats up. But whether his portrayal of Mr. Kasich as a tool of Wall Street who "forgot where he came from" is gaining traction remains an open question.

A fund-raising appeal last week by the national Democratic Party raised the specter of Karl Rove, a former top adviser to President Bush, running a "smear factory" to produce attack ads against Democratic Senate candidates, including Mr. Fisher. Such talk may energize the base. But the Ohio poll numbers suggest that running against the Bush administration is not a sure strategy for victory.

The Ohio Senate debate has largely been an effort by both candidates to blame each other for the state's massive job losses. But if you've been laid off, you're probably not interested in such sterile bickering between the parties. You want to hear the candidates tell you what they will do to help you find a new job.

If Democrats want to make gains in November, or even hold on to what they've got, they need to find a theme that resonates with voters. There's time - but not much.

David Kushma is editor of The Blade.

Contact him at: dkushma@theblade.com