People are living longer, but who will pay?

HUMAN beings have always looked for immortality by seeking the mythical Fountain of Youth. Except for the stories of biblical prophets who lived for hundreds of years, there is no evidence that mankind has ever attained a long life span.

The closest one comes is the claim, long since debunked, that in certain parts of the Himalaya and Karakorum mountains people live a long life free of disease, worry, and pestilence. It seems the Shangri-La of James Hilton's 1933 novel Lost Horizon never did exist.

Medical science has not given us the life span of Abraham or Noah, but it has offered us a degree of longevity that was unimaginable just 100 years ago. Between 1900 and 2000, life expectancy rose from 47 to 78 years by adding two to three years to our lives every decade. Most of that was achieved through public heath measures: controlling infectious diseases, vaccinations, and immunization.

Efforts continue to control or eradicate chronic diseases and help minds and bodies stay sharp in the autumn of our lives. Experts say we have the biological potential to live as long as 125 years, free of diseases and injury.

There are 39 million Americans over 65. They constitute 13 percent of the population. By 2012, the 65 million baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) will begin joining the ranks of 65-year-olds, and this trend will continue until 2029.

If we calculate just the Social Security payments to people 51 and older, it comes to $600 billion a year. If you add Medicare, Medicaid, and disability benefits, the figure balloons to $1.3 trillion.

Have we, by increasing the life span, made our elderly population any more content, active, and happy? The results are mixed. For every George Herbert Walker Bush who parachutes at age 85, there are millions of elderly who languish under the crushing burden of disease and limited resources.

If we continue to add years to the human life span, we will have 56 million seniors by 2030, and that will almost double Medicare spending. These expenditures continue to rise, and politicians do not have the will to touch this hot potato.

An argument is often made that if we could keep our elderly healthy, we would be able to control the cost of entitlement programs. Yes, there are definite benefits to regular exercise, nutritious food, adequate sleep, and activities that engage body and mind. But only to a point.

Suppose we eliminate or drastically reduce the incidence of hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and smoking, the four main causes of illness in the elderly. While there would be savings in the first two instances, medical expenses actually would increase if diabetes and smoking were eliminated.

It's paradoxical but true. Diabetes and smoking cut short many lives. Helping people live longer will increase expenditures.

A counterargument is that extra years will allow the elderly to work and thus pay taxes longer. According to the nonprofit Rand Corp., the impact of this revenue stream will be small and will not offset costs in any significant way.

Even if money were not a concern, more people mean an added burden on the planet in terms of water resources, garbage disposal, carbon footprints, and a host of other issues that will need to be addressed.

When all is said and done, care for the elderly will have to fall more and more on their grown children. Between 2000 and 2007, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of aging parents moving in with their adult children increased 50 percent, from 1.4 million to 2.1 million.

In 1513, the Spanish explorer Ponce de Leon went looking for the Fountain of Youth in Florida. He did not find it, but the desire to find the elusive fountain is still deep-seated in our hearts.

Today that quest to live longer takes us in search of miracle drugs, restorative diets, an array of food supplements, and other proven and unproven remedies. But as a society we have not addressed the issue of how to care for our aging population, and what we need to do to prevent the insolvency of Medicare and other entitlement programs.

Dr. S. Amjad Hussain is a retired Toledo surgeon whose column appears every other week in The Blade.

Contact him at: aghaji@bex.net