Ohioans favor Romney over Gingrich, evenly split between Romney and Obama

Newt Gingrich has fallen back to a second-place tie among Ohio Republicans behind Mitt Romney in the contest for the GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.

The poll showed former Massachusetts Governor Romney leading the Republican field with 27 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 18 percent in a statistical tie with Mr. Gingrich at 17 percent, Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 10 percent, and Texas Governor Rick Perry with 4 percent.

“Gov. Mitt Romney is comfortably ahead of the Republican field,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “If he continues to win primaries elsewhere, that margin will likely increase by the time the voting comes to Ohio on March 6. But if he should lose his momentum — and some primaries — then that lead might not be safe.”

“What’s going on in Ohio is a reflection of what’s going on nationally,” Mr. Brown said of Mr. Gingrich’s diminished polling.

The last time Quinnipiac published a survey of Ohio Republicans, on Dec. 8, Mr. Gingrich held a 36 to 18 percent lead over Mr. Romney.

It is the first of three monthly polls by Quinnipiac that Mr. Romney has had the lead among Ohio Republicans. The November poll had businessman Herman Cain in front. Mr. Cain has since dropped out of contention.

It’s also the highest percentage for Mr. Romney in the last three months.

Republicans still showed admiration for Mr. Gingrich, even if they were less willing to back him for the nomination.

Among Republicans, 43 percent said Mr. Gingrich is the best qualified when it comes to foreign affairs, with Mr. Romney second at 16 percent. Mr. Gingrich has the right kind of knowledge and experience to be president, 38 percent of Republicans said, with 25 percent pointing to Mr. Romney, according to the poll.

Mr. Romney is best able to handle the economy, 36 percent of Republicans said, with 19 percent for Mr. Gingrich. Mr. Romney is a strong leader, 32 percent said, with 31 percent for Gingrich.

In a general election match-up, President Obama and Mr. Romney were statistically tied at 44-42 percent, according to the poll, in line with previous Quinnipiac University polls.

Against the president, Mr. Romney gets 45 percent of men to Mr. Obama’s 42 percent. Women back Mr. Obama 47–38 percent.

In job approval, Ohio voters gave President Obama a 51–44 percent disapproval rating and said, by 51–45 percent, that he does not deserve a second term in office.

“With Ohio being perhaps the most important single state in the country when it comes to the Electoral College math, all indications are that if Romney is the Republican nominee it will be a very, very close contest,” Mr. Brown said. “The president’s problem is getting back the voters who voted for him in 2008 but went for [Republican] John Kasich for governor in 2010. His main obstacle may be that voters say 48–42 percent that Romney is better able to fix the economy,” Mr. Brown said.

Ohio is one of three critical swing states Quinnipiac is focused on, along with Florida and Pennsylvania. He said Florida leans slightly Republican, Pennsylvania slightly Democratic. “Ohio is right in the middle,” Mr. Brown said.

The polling report was based on surveys of 1,610 registered voters Jan. 9-16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. The margin of error for the results of the 542 Republican voters included in the count is 4.2 points.

Contact Tom Troy at:

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