Top GOP contenders to converge on region

Mitt Romney, left, greets his supporters, as he seeks to keep his edge in Michigan, where he grew up. Recent polls show a close race between Mr. Romney and his closest rival, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. ASSOCIATED PRESS Enlarge

With both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum planning multiple campaign stops in Michigan and Ohio -- with Newt Gingrich having toured Ohio last week -- it's obvious that the GOP presidential primary campaign has come to the Midwest.

"We're the next one in line here to be in the spotlight," said Jason Sheppard, chairman of the Monroe County Republican Party. "Romney is pretty entrenched here in the state of Michigan. Santorum has gained a lot of momentum. People gain momentum and lose it and gain it. It's hard to predict who the final winner will be."

Michigan's primary election, in which 30 delegates will be awarded, is Feb. 28, along with Arizona. They are next in the long slog toward the Republican nominating convention in August in Tampa.

Ohio's primary election, with 66 delegates at stake, falls on March 6. Registered voters can vote early through their county boards of elections.

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A new Ohio poll showed that former Senator Santorum of Pennsylvania has vaulted ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Romney, leading him by 36-29, with former House Speaker Gingrich and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas trailing.

Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum have a series of events planned in Ohio and Michigan. Mr. Romney is to meet with a business roundtable group Thursday morning in Monroe and then address the Farmington Hills, Mich., Chamber of Commerce. He is to be at National Galvanizing on Telb Street at 8:30 a.m. In the evening, he is to speak at the Cuyahoga County Republican Party Lincoln Day dinner in Cleveland.

Mr. Santorum has speeches planned for Thursday to the Detroit Economic Club in Cobo Arena and to the Oakland County GOP Lincoln Dinner in Novi, Mich. He has appearances slated for the Cincinnati area, Columbus, and Akron on Saturday.

The Romney campaign is expected to unload massive advertising in the bid to win the state where Mr. Romney spent his childhood, Michigan.

Surrogates on Wednesday spoke in favor of Mr. Romney, predicting with confidence that he would win -- despite Mr. Santorum's winning the last three primary fights.

"The next two weeks are going to be about issues," said State Rep. Aric Nesbitt (R., Lawton). "In Rick Santorum, we've seen someone who back in 1992 voted for larger spending items, who moved away from the fiscal conservative policies our nation needs to return to. And getting that information out is going to be extremely important. Romney will win the state I think after full information is out there about Senator Santorum."

The Romney campaign on Wednesday put out a list of 125 current and former elected and political officials who had endorsed him.

The Santorum campaign predicted a "mudslinging" campaign from Mr. Romney and released a video showing a Romneylike character firing a mud gun at a Santorum cutout but succeeding only in covering himself in mud.

"Rather than focusing on the issues, his record, or his vision, Mitt Romney has focused on destroying his opponents with millions of dollars in false, negative advertising," said Hogan Gidley, national communications director for the Santorum campaign.

U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio) held a phone conference with reporters in which he extolled Mr. Romney as the best candidate.

"It comes down to who has the best plan for moving the country forward on jobs and the economy," Mr. Portman said, arguing that Mr. Romney's supposed greater electability is because of his prescriptions on jobs and the economy.

He said an average of all the polls done on RealClearPolitics.com showed only six points separating Mr. Santorum, Mr. Romney, and Mr. Gingrich. "I think it's going to be a close election, and I do think because of our proportional delegate selection process each will get some delegates," Mr. Portman said.

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Eighteen of Ohio's delegates will be awarded proportionately to all candidates getting at least 20 percent of the vote.

If one candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote, that candidate will get all 18 at-large delegates. The remaining 48 delegates will be awarded by congressional districts, with the top vote-getter in each of the 16 congressional district getting all three of the votes from that district.

Because it gets only half of its authorized delegates, Michigan will award two delegates for each of its 14 districts and two to be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Michigan's primary nominally selects 60 delegates, but the state is being penalized by the Republican National Committee for scheduling its primary before Super Tuesday. It will be allowed to vote only half of its delegates.

Quinnipiac University announced the results of a new poll Wednesday showing Mr. Romney had gained in Ohio slightly since a January poll, rising from being the first choice of 27 percent of Republican likely voters to 29 percent, while Mr. Santorum's share doubled from 18 percent to 36 percent.

Mr. Gingrich was third in Ohio with 20 percent and Mr. Paul was fourth with 9 percent.

In a matchup with President Obama, Mr. Romney still performed better than Mr. Santorum, getting 44 percent to Mr. Obama's 46 percent among Ohio registered voters. The President would beat Mr. Santorum 47-41 percent and Mr. Gingrich 50-38 percent.

According to Peter Brown, assistant director of the polling institute, Mr. Romney's 2-point gap with Mr. Obama is similar to the January poll.

"Sen. Rick Santorum has zoomed to the front of the line among likely voters in Ohio's March 6 Republican presidential primary," Mr. Brown said. "He appears to be riding the momentum from his victories last week in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri."

Mr. Brown said the poll showed that Mr. Romney has a slightly negative favorability rating --37-40 percent -- among all voters, and a positive favorability rating of 61-25 among Republican voters. Mr. Santorum's favorability was positive for all voters -- 35-22 -- and among Republican voters -- 62-7.

"For the first time, numerically more voters in Ohio view Romney unfavorably than favorably. His pattern in the earlier primary states has been to use his money advantage to run a large number of negative ads on his biggest challenger. But doing so now risks further increasing Romney's own unfavorables as a side effect of throwing the mud himself. Yet, Romney may feel the need to raise questions about the lesser-known Santorum in the eyes of GOP voters."

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,421 registered voters Feb. 7-12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for all voters and 4.2 percent for Republican voters.

An issue down the road for Mr. Romney, and to a lesser extent for Mr. Santorum, is the success that automakers General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC have had, thanks to the $85 billion bailout from the taxpayers since 2009. Mr. Romney famously opined in the New York Times in 2008 against a taxpayer bailout and for managed bankruptcy.

In an op-ed article in the Detroit News this week Mr. Romney stuck to his guns, calling the bailout a subsidy to political supporters in the autoworker unions.

Mr. Sheppard said Mr. Romney's opposition to the bailout won't hurt him among Republicans.

"There's so many things Obama has done that have gone against the grain of what Republicans and conservatives stand for," Mr. Sheppard said.

Contact Tom Troy at: tomtroy@theblade.com or 419-724-6058.