Joblessness hits 10.9%, but experts see bottom

Ohio's jobless rate rose to 10.9 percent in February, the highest since 1983, but economists said Friday that the state is on the cusp of an economic turnaround that should start very soon.

"Have we seen the worst? What I would say is we're scraping the bottom in terms of job loss," said Richard DeKaser, an economist with Woodley Park Research in Washington.

Economist Kenneth Mayland of ClearView Economics in Cleveland was more certain of an impending turnaround. "It's been a tough, long slog, but we've seen the worst - I guarantee it," he said.

February's 10.9 percent was up from 10.8 percent in January and from 9.1 percent unemployment in February, 2009, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. The number of unemployed workers in February was 647,000, up from 641,000 from January and from 548,000 a year ago.

The unemployment rates in Ohio were revised early this year, going back more than a year, using more updated employment information.

The result adjusted downward the rates of several months last year, including the 11.1 percent rate in June and 11.2 percent in July to be 10.5 percent and 10.6 percent.

The original figures at the time marked the highest rates since the 1983 recession, but now the February rate is the highest since 11 percent in September, 1983.

The February rate follows four months of a 10.8 percent jobless level and two prior months at 10.7 percent.

Asked whether the jobless picture was improving in Ohio, Mr. Mayland said the number of unemployed has been at the same level the last three months or so.

"What it's all showing is that the unemployment rate is at a pretty high level. That's consistent with the nation's economy in that through February the overall economy was shedding jobs," he said.

But as of now, he added, "We are at a cusp of change for the U.S. economy and the state of Ohio. A lot of things that were working against us are going to start working in our favor."

Ohio's manufacturing sector is poised for a strong turnaround, the two economists said.

Mr. DeKaser said the weak U.S. dollar should boost Ohio exports, helping manufacturing in the state. Mr. Mayland said the auto sector in Ohio is ramping up and about to begin calling workers back.

Consumer spending and capital expenditures are both increasing, and there is still more federal stimulus funds to be spent on road and infrastructure repairs in Ohio.

"You put all this together and I definitely see a rebound for the Ohio economy and it should filter down through Ohio unemployment," Mr. Mayland said.

Mr. DeKaser said he too is seeing manufacturing production schedules "picking up in a meaningful way for the first time in years."

Contact Jon Chavez at:

jchavez@theblade.com

or 419-724-6128.